Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 21.311398 23.156252 25.148333 27.469794 30.114175 33.048579 36.573392
2025-10-26 18.242095 20.721649 23.581487 27.163912 31.589479 36.957103 44.087241
2025-11-02 16.127724 18.949975 22.375852 26.925028 32.942415 40.837979 52.363520
2025-11-09 14.640987 17.677699 21.521257 26.882548 34.411428 45.026636 61.998462
2025-11-16 13.447336 16.598945 20.727345 26.730247 35.611262 48.975365 72.278803
2025-11-23 12.488974 15.705011 20.042727 26.582183 36.718915 52.921391 83.663298
2025-11-30 11.684607 14.928399 19.415150 26.397737 37.685985 56.771646 96.094896
2025-12-07 11.057932 14.333581 18.970597 26.405051 38.917661 61.281097 111.465225
2025-12-14 10.484856 13.762151 18.496314 26.289693 39.894106 65.502747 127.981425
2025-12-21 10.220436 13.610355 18.623714 27.138367 42.672159 73.866422 158.833228
2025-12-28 9.725278 13.078351 18.117403 26.862721 43.322825 77.973655 180.708376
2026-01-04 9.332098 12.671582 17.770868 26.815370 44.391083 83.271650 209.871677
2026-01-11 9.012395 12.366121 17.576751 27.043027 46.110058 90.778923 253.920306
2026-01-18 8.625006 11.932875 17.143663 26.794823 46.814406 96.040376 295.317249
2026-01-25 8.277798 11.542413 16.752928 26.584250 47.571225 101.739781 346.372759
2026-02-01 7.991513 11.231914 16.473323 26.553641 48.728126 109.025744 417.767182
2026-02-08 7.708943 10.911252 16.153098 26.409197 49.598892 115.827615 500.717795
2026-02-15 7.448363 10.612242 15.849625 26.266106 50.451665 122.967493 605.292266
2026-02-22 7.201170 10.322477 15.543176 26.085939 51.185757 130.076173 734.357444
2026-03-01 6.999456 10.097948 15.337833 26.093656 52.408013 139.590352 932.634013
2026-03-08 6.793737 9.856657 15.086958 25.980503 53.295955 148.333697 1178.758627
2026-03-15 6.731349 9.853870 15.269043 26.814810 56.956364 170.908556 1911.440923
2026-03-22 6.525654 9.596074 14.962906 26.543947 57.420351 179.510153 2492.806550